According to figures from the Central Bank, between January and September 2023, resources from individuals and non-financial companies totaling US$3.927 billion have left the country, representing a slight decrease of 1.2% compared to the US$3.973 billion recorded in the same period last year. With this, since early 2020, a total of US$31.836 billion has left the country.
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Capital outflows have begun to moderate. Although levels remain high compared to those prior to the social unrest, the figures show a lower level relative to 2020 and 2021.
According to figures from the Central Bank, between January and September 2023, resources from individuals and non-financial companies totaling US$3.927 billion have left the country, representing a slight decline of 1.2% compared to the US$3.973 billion recorded in the same period last year.
This amount is 62.6% lower than what left the country between January and September 2021, when the figure reached US$10.493 billion, and 62.7% lower than that recorded in the same period in 2020.
Despite this decline, the amounts remain above the levels seen before the social unrest of October 2019. In this case, the figures show that current levels are 115% higher than those recorded in the same period in 2018 and 2,000% higher than in 2017.
In summary, when analyzing a longer period and taking the social unrest of October 2019 as a starting point, between 2020 and September 2023, resources totaling US$31.836 billion have left the country.
In quarterly terms, the third quarter of 2023 recorded a 41.4% decrease compared to the second quarter of this year (US$1.951 billion), but when compared to the same period last year, it shows an increase of 25.8%.
Experts state that, although the figure remains significant in the country’s recent history, it is substantially lower than the most critical periods in terms of economic and political uncertainty. However, they anticipate that it may remain above the levels seen before the social unrest, as political uncertainty continues, with several scenarios still open following the plebiscite on December 17.
Outlook
Regarding the outlook, experts remain cautious, as although in their baseline scenario they do not expect figures to return to over US$10 billion as seen in 2020 and 2021, capital outflows could remain stable at around US$4 billion annually, although the constitutional political scenario will play an important role.
Javier Jaque, partner at Tax Consulting CCL AC Auditores Consultores, points to the political scenario as a key factor. “There is a new Constitution process that generates uncertainty. For example, if the ‘In Favor’ option wins, there are already voices suggesting it would be further refined, and if the ‘Against’ option wins, a new constitutional debate could reopen. This creates uncertainty, and resources will seek safer countries.”